October 2002/43
Issues paper
This report is for information
Academic staff: trends and projections
This report investigates how many academic staff will need to be recruited over the next 10 years. It estimates overall leaving rates, and particularly whether there will be a significant increase in rates, because of staff retiring. Findings show that, overall, current recruitment rates are sufficient to maintain current staff numbers. However, this varies by subject. Further, if staff numbers are to increase, there will need to be a marked increase in recruitment.
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Report
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Annex A Definitions used in constructing the time series
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Guide to the data in Annexes B, D2 and E
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Annex B Detailed results for time series 1994-95 to 2000-01
Annex C Creating an individual longitudinal record of academic staff
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Annex D1 Academic staff projection models: methods and rationale
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Annex E Academic staff projection models: details of outputs
Summary
What has been investigated?
1. In this report we address the question, 'what levels of recruitment for academic staff will be needed over the next 10 years?'. In answering this, we have to take account of two main aspects: the number of academic staff that will be required, and the future leaving rates that can be expected. The first aspect leads us to questions about the future scale of higher education activities, and the staffing levels they will require. These issues go beyond the scope of this report, so we have provided estimates of recruitment needs for a range of staffing levels.
2. The key task we have undertaken is to estimate overall leaving rates. In particular we have addressed the question as to whether the current age profile of academic staff is such that a growing number will be reaching retirement age, thus causing a marked overall increase in the leaving rate, the so-called 'demographic time-bomb'.
3. There is a closely related, but distinct, set of questions relating to the difficulties and costs of meeting recruitment levels. In this study, we have not attempted to assess these difficulties, though references are made to investigations which do.
Results
4. Our approach was firstly to see what has happened in the recent past, and then to construct projections through to 2010.
5. The time series between 1995 and 2000 of numbers of academic staff (lecturer grade and above) revealed a number of trends. We found that the proportion of staff on temporary contracts was stable at around 14 per cent. For staff on permanent contracts we found that over this period:
- There was a 6.5 per cent overall increase in numbers over the five years.
- In a few subject areas, numbers were decreasing. These were mathematics, physics, chemistry and engineering.
- The proportion of staff on lecturer grades declined, while the proportion on professorial grades increased from 12 per cent to 17 per cent.
- The proportion of staff aged 50 or over increased from 35 per cent to 41 per cent.
- The proportion of staff who were female increased from 26 per cent to 31 per cent.
6. Staff numbers were then projected through to 2010, showing what would happen if the current promotion and leaving rates - specific to the age, sex, grade, subject area and research status of the staff, and the current recruitment profiles - continued into the future.
7. With these assumptions the projections indicate that:
- The current age profile will not lead to a marked increase in the overall leaving rates; so current recruitment is sufficient to maintain current numbers.
- The overall picture does not apply to all subject areas. Mathematics, physics and engineering will need to increase recruitment rates to maintain current numbers. This is to be expected, since with current recruitment levels the numbers of staff in these subject areas have declined in recent years.
- The number of recruits required is very sensitive to any required growth in total numbers. So, for example, in order to achieve an increase in staff numbers of 1 per cent per annum, average recruitment rates over the next decade would need to increase by about 17 per cent above what would be required to maintain staff numbers.
- The trend towards increasing proportions of staff in higher grades will continue.
- The proportion of staff aged 50 or over will stabilise.
- The trend towards increasing proportions of female staff will continue, reaching 37 per cent by 2010.
Conclusion
8. The current profile of academic staff does not, of itself, imply that higher overall recruitment rates are needed to maintain current staff numbers. Of course, any marked increase in leaving rates, specific to age and the other factors included in the modelling, would mean an increase in recruitment to maintain numbers.
9. If staff numbers are to increase, there will need to be a significant increase in recruitment rates. Given that universities and colleges already have problems recruiting staff, there are likely to be severe difficulties in increasing staff numbers unless specific measures are taken.
Further work
10. We plan to monitor rates of recruitment, promotion and leaving, and to update our projections. This should give an early warning of any departure from the trends we have identified.
11. Initial presentations of this work have generated interest and questions beyond the scope of the original inquiry. So, for example, having demonstrated that the proportion of professors who are females is likely to increase, we were asked whether similar changes might be expected in the number of professors from ethnic minorities. We plan to address these and other questions in further analysis.
Queries
12. Comments or questions about this study should be sent to: Mark Gittoes, tel 0117 931 7052, e-mail m.gittoes@hefce.ac.uk
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